American Vanguard Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.88
| AVD Stock | USD 5.40 0.32 5.59% |
Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
American |
American Vanguard Target Price Odds to finish over 5.88
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 5.88 or more in 90 days |
| 5.40 | 90 days | 5.88 | about 27.77 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Vanguard to move over $ 5.88 or more in 90 days from now is about 27.77 (This American Vanguard probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Vanguard price to stay between its current price of $ 5.40 and $ 5.88 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.15 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon American Vanguard has a beta of -0.14. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding American Vanguard are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, American Vanguard is likely to outperform the market. Additionally American Vanguard has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. American Vanguard Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for American Vanguard
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Vanguard. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Vanguard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Vanguard Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Vanguard is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Vanguard's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Vanguard, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Vanguard within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
American Vanguard Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Vanguard for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Vanguard can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| American Vanguard generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| American Vanguard has about 20.33 M in cash with (58.75 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.71. | |
| American Vanguard has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: American Vanguard Appoints Industry Veteran, Douglas A. Kaye, III as Chief Executive Officer |
American Vanguard Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Vanguard's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Vanguard's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 28.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.4 M |
American Vanguard Technical Analysis
American Vanguard's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Vanguard. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Vanguard Predictive Forecast Models
American Vanguard's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Vanguard's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Vanguard's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American Vanguard
Checking the ongoing alerts about American Vanguard for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Vanguard help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| American Vanguard generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| American Vanguard has about 20.33 M in cash with (58.75 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.71. | |
| American Vanguard has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: American Vanguard Appoints Industry Veteran, Douglas A. Kaye, III as Chief Executive Officer |
Check out American Vanguard Backtesting, American Vanguard Valuation, American Vanguard Correlation, American Vanguard Hype Analysis, American Vanguard Volatility, American Vanguard History as well as American Vanguard Performance. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Vanguard. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Vanguard listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | Dividend Share 0.03 | Earnings Share (1.04) | Revenue Per Share 19.807 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.21) |
The market value of American Vanguard is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Vanguard's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Vanguard's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Vanguard's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Vanguard's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Vanguard's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Vanguard is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Vanguard's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.