Avia Avian (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 436.15
| AVIA Stock | 408.00 2.00 0.49% |
Avia |
Avia Avian Target Price Odds to finish over 436.15
The tendency of Avia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 436.15 or more in 90 days |
| 408.00 | 90 days | 436.15 | about 86.63 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Avia Avian to move over 436.15 or more in 90 days from now is about 86.63 (This Avia Avian PT probability density function shows the probability of Avia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Avia Avian PT price to stay between its current price of 408.00 and 436.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.32 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Avia Avian has a beta of 0.3. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Avia Avian average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Avia Avian PT will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Avia Avian PT has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Avia Avian Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Avia Avian
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avia Avian PT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Avia Avian Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Avia Avian is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Avia Avian's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Avia Avian PT, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Avia Avian within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 23.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Avia Avian Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Avia Avian for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Avia Avian PT can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Avia Avian PT generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Avia Avian Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Avia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Avia Avian's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avia Avian's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62 B | |
| Dividends Paid | 2.4 T | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.1 T | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 20 | |
| Shares Float | 11.7 B |
Avia Avian Technical Analysis
Avia Avian's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Avia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Avia Avian PT. In general, you should focus on analyzing Avia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Avia Avian Predictive Forecast Models
Avia Avian's time-series forecasting models is one of many Avia Avian's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Avia Avian's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Avia Avian PT
Checking the ongoing alerts about Avia Avian for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Avia Avian PT help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Avia Avian PT generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Avia Stock
Avia Avian financial ratios help investors to determine whether Avia Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Avia with respect to the benefits of owning Avia Avian security.