HACKETT GROUP (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 32.07
| AWT Stock | 30.00 0.40 1.35% |
HACKETT |
HACKETT GROUP Target Price Odds to finish below 32.07
The tendency of HACKETT Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 32.07 after 90 days |
| 30.00 | 90 days | 32.07 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of HACKETT GROUP to stay under 32.07 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This HACKETT GROUP probability density function shows the probability of HACKETT Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of HACKETT GROUP price to stay between its current price of 30.00 and 32.07 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.51 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon HACKETT GROUP has a beta of -0.44. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding HACKETT GROUP are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, HACKETT GROUP is likely to outperform the market. Additionally HACKETT GROUP has an alpha of 0.4343, implying that it can generate a 0.43 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). HACKETT GROUP Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for HACKETT GROUP
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HACKETT GROUP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HACKETT GROUP's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
HACKETT GROUP Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. HACKETT GROUP is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the HACKETT GROUP's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold HACKETT GROUP, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of HACKETT GROUP within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.43 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
HACKETT GROUP Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of HACKETT Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential HACKETT GROUP's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HACKETT GROUP's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.3 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 12.9 M |
HACKETT GROUP Technical Analysis
HACKETT GROUP's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. HACKETT Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of HACKETT GROUP. In general, you should focus on analyzing HACKETT Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
HACKETT GROUP Predictive Forecast Models
HACKETT GROUP's time-series forecasting models is one of many HACKETT GROUP's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary HACKETT GROUP's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards HACKETT GROUP in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, HACKETT GROUP's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from HACKETT GROUP options trading.
Additional Tools for HACKETT Stock Analysis
When running HACKETT GROUP's price analysis, check to measure HACKETT GROUP's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy HACKETT GROUP is operating at the current time. Most of HACKETT GROUP's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of HACKETT GROUP's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move HACKETT GROUP's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of HACKETT GROUP to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.