Archer Exploration (Australia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 21.18
| AXE Stock | 0.28 0.01 3.45% |
Archer |
Archer Exploration Target Price Odds to finish over 21.18
The tendency of Archer Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 21.18 or more in 90 days |
| 0.28 | 90 days | 21.18 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Archer Exploration to move over 21.18 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Archer Exploration probability density function shows the probability of Archer Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Archer Exploration price to stay between its current price of 0.28 and 21.18 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.07 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.83 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Archer Exploration will likely underperform. Additionally Archer Exploration has an alpha of 0.1804, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Archer Exploration Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Archer Exploration
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Archer Exploration. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Archer Exploration Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Archer Exploration is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Archer Exploration's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Archer Exploration, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Archer Exploration within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.83 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Archer Exploration Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Archer Exploration for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Archer Exploration can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Archer Exploration is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Archer Exploration has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Archer Exploration appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Archer Exploration has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 2.14 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.5 M. | |
| Archer Exploration has accumulated about 1.42 M in cash with (4.79 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: DJ Brent Crude Index Quote - Press Release - The Globe and Mail |
Archer Exploration Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Archer Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Archer Exploration's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Archer Exploration's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 254.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 18.8 M |
Archer Exploration Technical Analysis
Archer Exploration's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Archer Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Archer Exploration. In general, you should focus on analyzing Archer Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Archer Exploration Predictive Forecast Models
Archer Exploration's time-series forecasting models is one of many Archer Exploration's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Archer Exploration's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Archer Exploration
Checking the ongoing alerts about Archer Exploration for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Archer Exploration help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Archer Exploration is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Archer Exploration has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Archer Exploration appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Archer Exploration has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 2.14 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.5 M. | |
| Archer Exploration has accumulated about 1.42 M in cash with (4.79 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: DJ Brent Crude Index Quote - Press Release - The Globe and Mail |
Additional Tools for Archer Stock Analysis
When running Archer Exploration's price analysis, check to measure Archer Exploration's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Archer Exploration is operating at the current time. Most of Archer Exploration's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Archer Exploration's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Archer Exploration's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Archer Exploration to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.