American Express Cdr Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 24.58
| AXP Stock | 26.84 0.14 0.52% |
AMERICAN |
AMERICAN EXPRESS Target Price Odds to finish below 24.58
The tendency of AMERICAN Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 24.58 or more in 90 days |
| 26.84 | 90 days | 24.58 | about 49.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AMERICAN EXPRESS to drop to 24.58 or more in 90 days from now is about 49.3 (This AMERICAN EXPRESS CDR probability density function shows the probability of AMERICAN Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AMERICAN EXPRESS CDR price to stay between 24.58 and its current price of 26.84 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.32 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.12 . This suggests AMERICAN EXPRESS CDR market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, AMERICAN EXPRESS is expected to follow. Additionally AMERICAN EXPRESS CDR has an alpha of 0.131, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AMERICAN EXPRESS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AMERICAN EXPRESS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMERICAN EXPRESS CDR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AMERICAN EXPRESS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AMERICAN EXPRESS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AMERICAN EXPRESS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AMERICAN EXPRESS CDR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AMERICAN EXPRESS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
AMERICAN EXPRESS Technical Analysis
AMERICAN EXPRESS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AMERICAN Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AMERICAN EXPRESS CDR. In general, you should focus on analyzing AMERICAN Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AMERICAN EXPRESS Predictive Forecast Models
AMERICAN EXPRESS's time-series forecasting models is one of many AMERICAN EXPRESS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AMERICAN EXPRESS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards AMERICAN EXPRESS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, AMERICAN EXPRESS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from AMERICAN EXPRESS options trading.
Other Information on Investing in AMERICAN Stock
AMERICAN EXPRESS financial ratios help investors to determine whether AMERICAN Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AMERICAN with respect to the benefits of owning AMERICAN EXPRESS security.