Aygaz AS (Turkey) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.81
| AYGAZ Stock | TRY 177.00 1.80 1.01% |
Aygaz |
Aygaz AS Target Price Odds to finish over 1.81
The tendency of Aygaz Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 1.81 in 90 days |
| 177.00 | 90 days | 1.81 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aygaz AS to stay above 1.81 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Aygaz AS probability density function shows the probability of Aygaz Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aygaz AS price to stay between 1.81 and its current price of 177.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aygaz AS has a beta of 0.68. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aygaz AS average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aygaz AS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aygaz AS has an alpha of 0.1945, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aygaz AS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aygaz AS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aygaz AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aygaz AS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aygaz AS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aygaz AS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aygaz AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aygaz AS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Aygaz AS Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aygaz AS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aygaz AS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has 809.87 Million in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| Aygaz AS has accumulated 809.87 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 68.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Aygaz AS has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Aygaz AS until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Aygaz AS's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Aygaz AS sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Aygaz to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Aygaz AS's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Aygaz AS has accumulated about 837.95 M in cash with (149.12 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.79. | |
| Roughly 71.0% of Aygaz AS shares are held by company insiders |
Aygaz AS Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aygaz Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aygaz AS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aygaz AS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 219.8 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -149.9 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 2.8 B |
Aygaz AS Technical Analysis
Aygaz AS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aygaz Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aygaz AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aygaz Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aygaz AS Predictive Forecast Models
Aygaz AS's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aygaz AS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aygaz AS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aygaz AS
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aygaz AS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aygaz AS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has 809.87 Million in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| Aygaz AS has accumulated 809.87 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 68.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Aygaz AS has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Aygaz AS until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Aygaz AS's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Aygaz AS sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Aygaz to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Aygaz AS's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Aygaz AS has accumulated about 837.95 M in cash with (149.12 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.79. | |
| Roughly 71.0% of Aygaz AS shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Aygaz Stock
Aygaz AS financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aygaz Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aygaz with respect to the benefits of owning Aygaz AS security.