Avanza Bank (Sweden) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 218.45
| AZA Stock | SEK 234.00 8.20 3.63% |
Avanza |
Avanza Bank Target Price Odds to finish below 218.45
The tendency of Avanza Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to kr 218.45 or more in 90 days |
| 234.00 | 90 days | 218.45 | about 8.88 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Avanza Bank to drop to kr 218.45 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.88 (This Avanza Bank Holding probability density function shows the probability of Avanza Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Avanza Bank Holding price to stay between kr 218.45 and its current price of kr234.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 48.5 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Avanza Bank Holding has a beta of -0.16. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Avanza Bank are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Avanza Bank Holding is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Avanza Bank Holding has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Avanza Bank Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Avanza Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avanza Bank Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Avanza Bank Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Avanza Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Avanza Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Avanza Bank Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Avanza Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Avanza Bank Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Avanza Bank for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Avanza Bank Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Avanza Bank Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Avanza Bank Holding has accumulated 83 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 13.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Avanza Bank Holding has a current ratio of 0.37, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Avanza Bank until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Avanza Bank's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Avanza Bank Holding sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Avanza to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Avanza Bank's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 70.0% of Avanza Bank shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Avanza Bank Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Avanza Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Avanza Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avanza Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 156.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.9 B |
Avanza Bank Technical Analysis
Avanza Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Avanza Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Avanza Bank Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Avanza Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Avanza Bank Predictive Forecast Models
Avanza Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many Avanza Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Avanza Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Avanza Bank Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Avanza Bank for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Avanza Bank Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Avanza Bank Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Avanza Bank Holding has accumulated 83 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 13.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Avanza Bank Holding has a current ratio of 0.37, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Avanza Bank until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Avanza Bank's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Avanza Bank Holding sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Avanza to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Avanza Bank's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 70.0% of Avanza Bank shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Tools for Avanza Stock Analysis
When running Avanza Bank's price analysis, check to measure Avanza Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avanza Bank is operating at the current time. Most of Avanza Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avanza Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avanza Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avanza Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.