British American (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 41.41
| B1TI34 Stock | BRL 43.51 0.01 0.02% |
British |
British American Target Price Odds to finish below 41.41
The tendency of British Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 41.41 or more in 90 days |
| 43.51 | 90 days | 41.41 | about 70.57 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of British American to drop to R$ 41.41 or more in 90 days from now is about 70.57 (This British American Tobacco probability density function shows the probability of British Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of British American Tobacco price to stay between R$ 41.41 and its current price of R$43.51 at the end of the 90-day period is about 27.56 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon British American Tobacco has a beta of -0.15 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding British American are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, British American Tobacco is likely to outperform the market. Additionally British American Tobacco has an alpha of 0.1775, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). British American Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for British American
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as British American Tobacco. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.British American Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. British American is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the British American's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold British American Tobacco, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of British American within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
British American Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of British Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential British American's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. British American's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.3 B |
British American Technical Analysis
British American's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. British Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of British American Tobacco. In general, you should focus on analyzing British Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
British American Predictive Forecast Models
British American's time-series forecasting models is one of many British American's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary British American's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards British American in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, British American's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from British American options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in British Stock
When determining whether British American Tobacco offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of British American's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of British American Tobacco Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on British American Tobacco Stock:Check out British American Backtesting, British American Valuation, British American Correlation, British American Hype Analysis, British American Volatility, British American History as well as British American Performance. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.