Couchbase Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 20.95
| BASE Stock | USD 20.33 0.09 0.44% |
Couchbase |
Couchbase Target Price Odds to finish over 20.95
The tendency of Couchbase Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 20.95 or more in 90 days |
| 20.33 | 90 days | 20.95 | roughly 2.35 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Couchbase to move over $ 20.95 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.35 (This Couchbase probability density function shows the probability of Couchbase Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Couchbase price to stay between its current price of $ 20.33 and $ 20.95 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.24 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.53 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Couchbase will likely underperform. Additionally Couchbase has an alpha of 0.0127, implying that it can generate a 0.0127 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Couchbase Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Couchbase
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Couchbase. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Couchbase's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Couchbase Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Couchbase is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Couchbase's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Couchbase, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Couchbase within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.53 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Couchbase Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Couchbase for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Couchbase can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Couchbase had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Couchbase has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 180.04 M. Net Loss for the year was (80.18 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 134.56 M. | |
| Couchbase currently holds about 192.1 M in cash with (26.89 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.29. | |
| Couchbase has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Matthew Cain Sells 38,097 Shares of Couchbase Inc |
Couchbase Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Couchbase Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Couchbase's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Couchbase's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 153.6 M |
Couchbase Technical Analysis
Couchbase's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Couchbase Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Couchbase. In general, you should focus on analyzing Couchbase Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Couchbase Predictive Forecast Models
Couchbase's time-series forecasting models is one of many Couchbase's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Couchbase's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Couchbase
Checking the ongoing alerts about Couchbase for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Couchbase help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Couchbase had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Couchbase has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 180.04 M. Net Loss for the year was (80.18 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 134.56 M. | |
| Couchbase currently holds about 192.1 M in cash with (26.89 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.29. | |
| Couchbase has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Matthew Cain Sells 38,097 Shares of Couchbase Inc |
Check out Couchbase Backtesting, Couchbase Valuation, Couchbase Correlation, Couchbase Hype Analysis, Couchbase Volatility, Couchbase History as well as Couchbase Performance. For information on how to trade Couchbase Stock refer to our How to Trade Couchbase Stock guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Couchbase. If investors know Couchbase will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Couchbase listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.59) | Revenue Per Share 4.042 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.196 | Return On Assets (0.20) | Return On Equity (0.60) |
The market value of Couchbase is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Couchbase that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Couchbase's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Couchbase's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Couchbase's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Couchbase's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Couchbase's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Couchbase is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Couchbase's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.