BASF SE (Hungary) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 17,054
| BASF Stock | 17,396 58.00 0.33% |
BASF |
BASF SE Target Price Odds to finish below 17,054
The tendency of BASF Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 17,396 | 90 days | 17,396 | about 25.41 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BASF SE to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 25.41 (This BASF SE probability density function shows the probability of BASF Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon BASF SE has a beta of -0.34 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding BASF SE are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, BASF SE is likely to outperform the market. Additionally BASF SE has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. BASF SE Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for BASF SE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BASF SE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.BASF SE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BASF SE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BASF SE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BASF SE, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BASF SE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1,001 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
BASF SE Technical Analysis
BASF SE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BASF Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BASF SE. In general, you should focus on analyzing BASF Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BASF SE Predictive Forecast Models
BASF SE's time-series forecasting models is one of many BASF SE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BASF SE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BASF SE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BASF SE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BASF SE options trading.
Additional Tools for BASF Stock Analysis
When running BASF SE's price analysis, check to measure BASF SE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BASF SE is operating at the current time. Most of BASF SE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BASF SE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BASF SE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BASF SE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.