Battalion Oil Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.92
| BATL Stock | USD 3.46 0.08 2.37% |
Battalion |
Battalion Oil Target Price Odds to finish below 5.92
The tendency of Battalion Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 5.92 after 90 days |
| 3.46 | 90 days | 5.92 | about 63.41 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Battalion Oil to stay under $ 5.92 after 90 days from now is about 63.41 (This Battalion Oil Corp probability density function shows the probability of Battalion Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Battalion Oil Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 3.46 and $ 5.92 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.23 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.53 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Battalion Oil will likely underperform. Additionally Battalion Oil Corp has an alpha of 0.8432, implying that it can generate a 0.84 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Battalion Oil Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Battalion Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Battalion Oil Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Battalion Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Battalion Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Battalion Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Battalion Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Battalion Oil Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Battalion Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.84 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.53 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Battalion Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Battalion Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Battalion Oil Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Battalion Oil Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Battalion Oil Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Battalion Oil Corp currently holds 197.88 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.86, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Battalion Oil Corp has a current ratio of 0.5, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Battalion Oil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 218.5 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.05 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 177.61 M. | |
| Over 81.0% of Battalion Oil shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Charles Martin of 2290 shares of Battalion Oil subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Battalion Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Battalion Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Battalion Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Battalion Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 57.5 M |
Battalion Oil Technical Analysis
Battalion Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Battalion Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Battalion Oil Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Battalion Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Battalion Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Battalion Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Battalion Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Battalion Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Battalion Oil Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Battalion Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Battalion Oil Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Battalion Oil Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Battalion Oil Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Battalion Oil Corp currently holds 197.88 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.86, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Battalion Oil Corp has a current ratio of 0.5, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Battalion Oil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 218.5 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.05 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 177.61 M. | |
| Over 81.0% of Battalion Oil shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Charles Martin of 2290 shares of Battalion Oil subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Battalion Oil Backtesting, Battalion Oil Valuation, Battalion Oil Correlation, Battalion Oil Hype Analysis, Battalion Oil Volatility, Battalion Oil History as well as Battalion Oil Performance. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Battalion Oil. If investors know Battalion will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Battalion Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.127 | Earnings Share (0.38) | Revenue Per Share 11.635 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) | Return On Assets 0.0709 |
The market value of Battalion Oil Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Battalion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Battalion Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Battalion Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Battalion Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Battalion Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Battalion Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Battalion Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Battalion Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.