Bavarian Nordic (Denmark) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 150.85
| BAVA Stock | DKK 194.15 2.05 1.04% |
Bavarian |
Bavarian Nordic Target Price Odds to finish below 150.85
The tendency of Bavarian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to kr 150.85 or more in 90 days |
| 194.15 | 90 days | 150.85 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bavarian Nordic to drop to kr 150.85 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Bavarian Nordic probability density function shows the probability of Bavarian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bavarian Nordic price to stay between kr 150.85 and its current price of kr194.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.79 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Bavarian Nordic has a beta of 0.24 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bavarian Nordic average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bavarian Nordic will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Bavarian Nordic has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Bavarian Nordic Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bavarian Nordic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bavarian Nordic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bavarian Nordic Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bavarian Nordic is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bavarian Nordic's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bavarian Nordic, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bavarian Nordic within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 18.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Bavarian Nordic Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bavarian Nordic for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bavarian Nordic can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bavarian Nordic generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bavarian Nordic has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.9 B. Net Loss for the year was (464.77 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 570.93 M. | |
| Bavarian Nordic has accumulated about 2.59 B in cash with (358.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 44.37. |
Bavarian Nordic Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bavarian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bavarian Nordic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bavarian Nordic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.7 B |
Bavarian Nordic Technical Analysis
Bavarian Nordic's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bavarian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bavarian Nordic. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bavarian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bavarian Nordic Predictive Forecast Models
Bavarian Nordic's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bavarian Nordic's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bavarian Nordic's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bavarian Nordic
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bavarian Nordic for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bavarian Nordic help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bavarian Nordic generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bavarian Nordic has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.9 B. Net Loss for the year was (464.77 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 570.93 M. | |
| Bavarian Nordic has accumulated about 2.59 B in cash with (358.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 44.37. |
Other Information on Investing in Bavarian Stock
Bavarian Nordic financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bavarian Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bavarian with respect to the benefits of owning Bavarian Nordic security.