Blackberry Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.14
| BB Stock | CAD 3.68 0.03 0.81% |
BlackBerry |
BlackBerry Target Price Odds to finish below 4.14
The tendency of BlackBerry Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under C$ 4.14 after 90 days |
| 3.68 | 90 days | 4.14 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BlackBerry to stay under C$ 4.14 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This BlackBerry probability density function shows the probability of BlackBerry Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BlackBerry price to stay between its current price of C$ 3.68 and C$ 4.14 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.44 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.11 suggesting BlackBerry market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, BlackBerry is expected to follow. Additionally BlackBerry has an alpha of 0.1299, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). BlackBerry Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BlackBerry
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BlackBerry. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BlackBerry's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BlackBerry Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BlackBerry is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BlackBerry's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BlackBerry, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BlackBerry within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
BlackBerry Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BlackBerry for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BlackBerry can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the revenue of 853 M. Net Loss for the year was (130 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 467 M. | |
| BlackBerry has accumulated about 295 M in cash with (3 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.11. | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: BlackBerry AtHoc In Process Finalization for FedRAMP High Authorization - Marketscreener.com |
BlackBerry Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BlackBerry Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BlackBerry's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BlackBerry's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 584.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 237 M |
BlackBerry Technical Analysis
BlackBerry's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BlackBerry Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BlackBerry. In general, you should focus on analyzing BlackBerry Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BlackBerry Predictive Forecast Models
BlackBerry's time-series forecasting models is one of many BlackBerry's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BlackBerry's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about BlackBerry
Checking the ongoing alerts about BlackBerry for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BlackBerry help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the revenue of 853 M. Net Loss for the year was (130 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 467 M. | |
| BlackBerry has accumulated about 295 M in cash with (3 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.11. | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: BlackBerry AtHoc In Process Finalization for FedRAMP High Authorization - Marketscreener.com |
Check out BlackBerry Backtesting, BlackBerry Valuation, BlackBerry Correlation, BlackBerry Hype Analysis, BlackBerry Volatility, BlackBerry History as well as BlackBerry Performance. To learn how to invest in BlackBerry Stock, please use our How to Invest in BlackBerry guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.