Buana Finance (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 656.53
| BBLD Stock | IDR 665.00 5.00 0.76% |
Buana |
Buana Finance Target Price Odds to finish below 656.53
The tendency of Buana Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 656.53 or more in 90 days |
| 665.00 | 90 days | 656.53 | about 20.18 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Buana Finance to drop to 656.53 or more in 90 days from now is about 20.18 (This Buana Finance Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Buana Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Buana Finance Tbk price to stay between 656.53 and its current price of 665.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.47 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Buana Finance has a beta of 0.0055 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Buana Finance average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Buana Finance Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Buana Finance Tbk has an alpha of 0.0559, implying that it can generate a 0.0559 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Buana Finance Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Buana Finance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Buana Finance Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Buana Finance Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Buana Finance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Buana Finance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Buana Finance Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Buana Finance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 22.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Buana Finance Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Buana Finance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Buana Finance Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Buana Finance Tbk had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Buana Finance Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Buana Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Buana Finance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Buana Finance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 220.7 B |
Buana Finance Technical Analysis
Buana Finance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Buana Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Buana Finance Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Buana Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Buana Finance Predictive Forecast Models
Buana Finance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Buana Finance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Buana Finance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Buana Finance Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Buana Finance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Buana Finance Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Buana Finance Tbk had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Buana Stock
Buana Finance financial ratios help investors to determine whether Buana Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Buana with respect to the benefits of owning Buana Finance security.