ABSA BANK (Kenya) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.30
| BBLK Stock | 15.30 0.05 0.33% |
ABSA |
ABSA BANK Target Price Odds to finish over 16.30
The tendency of ABSA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 16.30 or more in 90 days |
| 15.30 | 90 days | 16.30 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ABSA BANK to move over 16.30 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This ABSA BANK OF probability density function shows the probability of ABSA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ABSA BANK price to stay between its current price of 15.30 and 16.30 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.58 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ABSA BANK has a beta of 0.15 suggesting as returns on the market go up, ABSA BANK average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ABSA BANK OF will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ABSA BANK OF has an alpha of 0.1046, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ABSA BANK Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ABSA BANK
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ABSA BANK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ABSA BANK Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ABSA BANK is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ABSA BANK's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ABSA BANK OF, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ABSA BANK within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
ABSA BANK Technical Analysis
ABSA BANK's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ABSA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ABSA BANK OF. In general, you should focus on analyzing ABSA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ABSA BANK Predictive Forecast Models
ABSA BANK's time-series forecasting models is one of many ABSA BANK's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ABSA BANK's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ABSA BANK in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ABSA BANK's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ABSA BANK options trading.