Brilliance China Automotive Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 0.3762
| BCAUF Stock | USD 0.34 0.04 10.53% |
Brilliance |
Brilliance China Target Price Odds to finish over 0.3762
The tendency of Brilliance Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 0.38 or more in 90 days |
| 0.34 | 90 days | 0.38 | about 65.54 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Brilliance China to move over $ 0.38 or more in 90 days from now is about 65.54 (This Brilliance China Automotive probability density function shows the probability of Brilliance Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Brilliance China Aut price to stay between its current price of $ 0.34 and $ 0.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.68 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Brilliance China Automotive has a beta of -10.62 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Brilliance China Automotive are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Brilliance China is expected to outperform its benchmark. In addition to that Brilliance China Automotive has an alpha of 4.8811, implying that it can generate a 4.88 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Brilliance China Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Brilliance China
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Brilliance China Aut. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Brilliance China's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Brilliance China Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Brilliance China is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Brilliance China's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Brilliance China Automotive, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Brilliance China within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 4.88 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -10.62 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Brilliance China Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Brilliance China for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Brilliance China Aut can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Brilliance China Aut is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Brilliance China Aut generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Brilliance China Aut has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Brilliance China Aut has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Brilliance China Aut has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Brilliance China Automotive has accumulated 7.5 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.06, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Brilliance China Aut has a current ratio of 0.97, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Brilliance China until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Brilliance China's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Brilliance China Aut sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Brilliance to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Brilliance China's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Brilliance China Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Brilliance Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Brilliance China's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Brilliance China's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5 B |
Brilliance China Technical Analysis
Brilliance China's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Brilliance Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Brilliance China Automotive. In general, you should focus on analyzing Brilliance Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Brilliance China Predictive Forecast Models
Brilliance China's time-series forecasting models is one of many Brilliance China's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Brilliance China's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Brilliance China Aut
Checking the ongoing alerts about Brilliance China for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Brilliance China Aut help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Brilliance China Aut is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Brilliance China Aut generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Brilliance China Aut has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Brilliance China Aut has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Brilliance China Aut has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Brilliance China Automotive has accumulated 7.5 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.06, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Brilliance China Aut has a current ratio of 0.97, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Brilliance China until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Brilliance China's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Brilliance China Aut sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Brilliance to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Brilliance China's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Other Information on Investing in Brilliance Pink Sheet
Brilliance China financial ratios help investors to determine whether Brilliance Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Brilliance with respect to the benefits of owning Brilliance China security.