Biocryst Pharmaceuticals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.27
| BCRX Stock | USD 7.50 0.01 0.13% |
BioCryst |
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish below 4.27
The tendency of BioCryst Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.27 or more in 90 days |
| 7.50 | 90 days | 4.27 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals to drop to $ 4.27 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This BioCryst Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of BioCryst Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals price to stay between $ 4.27 and its current price of $7.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.88 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days BioCryst Pharmaceuticals has a beta of -1.17 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding BioCryst Pharmaceuticals are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally BioCryst Pharmaceuticals has an alpha of 0.0496, implying that it can generate a 0.0496 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BioCryst Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| BioCryst Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| BioCryst Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| BioCryst Pharmaceuticals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 331.41 M. Net Loss for the year was (226.54 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 10.94 M. | |
| BioCryst Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 417.48 M in cash with (95.14 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.24. | |
| BioCryst Pharmaceuticals has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Market Sentiment Around Loss-Making BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BioCryst Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 192.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 389 M |
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BioCryst Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing BioCryst Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' time-series forecasting models is one of many BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
Checking the ongoing alerts about BioCryst Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| BioCryst Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| BioCryst Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| BioCryst Pharmaceuticals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 331.41 M. Net Loss for the year was (226.54 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 10.94 M. | |
| BioCryst Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 417.48 M in cash with (95.14 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.24. | |
| BioCryst Pharmaceuticals has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Market Sentiment Around Loss-Making BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
Additional Tools for BioCryst Stock Analysis
When running BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.