Bancroft Fund Limited Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.59
| BCV Stock | USD 18.39 0.08 0.43% |
Bancroft |
Bancroft Fund Target Price Odds to finish below 16.59
The tendency of Bancroft Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 16.59 or more in 90 days |
| 18.39 | 90 days | 16.59 | about 46.12 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bancroft Fund to drop to $ 16.59 or more in 90 days from now is about 46.12 (This Bancroft Fund Limited probability density function shows the probability of Bancroft Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bancroft Fund Limited price to stay between $ 16.59 and its current price of $18.39 at the end of the 90-day period is about 52.39 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Bancroft Fund has a beta of 0.0781 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bancroft Fund average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bancroft Fund Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Bancroft Fund Limited has an alpha of 0.2128, implying that it can generate a 0.21 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Bancroft Fund Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bancroft Fund
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bancroft Fund Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bancroft Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bancroft Fund Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bancroft Fund is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bancroft Fund's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bancroft Fund Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bancroft Fund within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Bancroft Fund Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bancroft Fund for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bancroft Fund Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bancroft Fund Limited has 30.36 M in debt. Bancroft Fund Limited has a current ratio of 0.49, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Bancroft to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.7 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.23 M. | |
| Bancroft Fund has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: BCV Decent, But Not Amazing Compared To Other Convertible Funds - Seeking Alpha |
Bancroft Fund Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bancroft Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bancroft Fund's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bancroft Fund's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 157.00 |
Bancroft Fund Technical Analysis
Bancroft Fund's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bancroft Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bancroft Fund Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bancroft Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bancroft Fund Predictive Forecast Models
Bancroft Fund's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bancroft Fund's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bancroft Fund's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bancroft Fund Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bancroft Fund for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bancroft Fund Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bancroft Fund Limited has 30.36 M in debt. Bancroft Fund Limited has a current ratio of 0.49, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Bancroft to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.7 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.23 M. | |
| Bancroft Fund has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: BCV Decent, But Not Amazing Compared To Other Convertible Funds - Seeking Alpha |
Additional Tools for Bancroft Stock Analysis
When running Bancroft Fund's price analysis, check to measure Bancroft Fund's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bancroft Fund is operating at the current time. Most of Bancroft Fund's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bancroft Fund's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bancroft Fund's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bancroft Fund to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.