Beazer Homes (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 26.63
| BE4A Stock | EUR 31.00 1.20 3.73% |
Beazer |
Beazer Homes Target Price Odds to finish below 26.63
The tendency of Beazer Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 26.63 or more in 90 days |
| 31.00 | 90 days | 26.63 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Beazer Homes to drop to € 26.63 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Beazer Homes USA probability density function shows the probability of Beazer Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Beazer Homes USA price to stay between € 26.63 and its current price of €31.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 86.82 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Beazer Homes has a beta of 0.24 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Beazer Homes average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Beazer Homes USA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Beazer Homes USA has an alpha of 0.1873, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Beazer Homes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Beazer Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Beazer Homes USA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Beazer Homes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Beazer Homes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Beazer Homes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Beazer Homes USA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Beazer Homes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Beazer Homes Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Beazer Homes for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Beazer Homes USA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Beazer Homes USA had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Beazer Homes USA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Beazer Homes Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Beazer Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Beazer Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Beazer Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.9 M |
Beazer Homes Technical Analysis
Beazer Homes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Beazer Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Beazer Homes USA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Beazer Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Beazer Homes Predictive Forecast Models
Beazer Homes' time-series forecasting models is one of many Beazer Homes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Beazer Homes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Beazer Homes USA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Beazer Homes for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Beazer Homes USA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Beazer Homes USA had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Beazer Homes USA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Beazer Stock
When determining whether Beazer Homes USA offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Beazer Homes' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Beazer Homes Usa Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Beazer Homes Usa Stock:Check out Beazer Homes Backtesting, Beazer Homes Valuation, Beazer Homes Correlation, Beazer Homes Hype Analysis, Beazer Homes Volatility, Beazer Homes History as well as Beazer Homes Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.