Federated Prudent Bear Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 5.63
| BEARX Fund | USD 4.93 0.02 0.40% |
Federated |
Federated Prudent Target Price Odds to finish over 5.63
The tendency of Federated Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 5.63 or more in 90 days |
| 4.93 | 90 days | 5.63 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Federated Prudent to move over $ 5.63 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Federated Prudent Bear probability density function shows the probability of Federated Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Federated Prudent Bear price to stay between its current price of $ 4.93 and $ 5.63 at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.79 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Federated Prudent Bear has a beta of -0.78 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Federated Prudent are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Federated Prudent Bear is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Federated Prudent Bear has an alpha of 0.0028, implying that it can generate a 0.002761 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Federated Prudent Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Federated Prudent
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated Prudent Bear. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Federated Prudent Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Federated Prudent is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Federated Prudent's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Federated Prudent Bear, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Federated Prudent within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.78 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.28 |
Federated Prudent Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Federated Prudent for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Federated Prudent Bear can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Federated Prudent generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| This fund generated-14.0 ten year return of -14.0% | |
| Federated Prudent holds about 138.13% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Federated Prudent Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Federated Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Federated Prudent's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Federated Prudent's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Federated Prudent Technical Analysis
Federated Prudent's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Federated Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Federated Prudent Bear. In general, you should focus on analyzing Federated Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Federated Prudent Predictive Forecast Models
Federated Prudent's time-series forecasting models is one of many Federated Prudent's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Federated Prudent's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Federated Prudent Bear
Checking the ongoing alerts about Federated Prudent for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Federated Prudent Bear help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Federated Prudent generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| This fund generated-14.0 ten year return of -14.0% | |
| Federated Prudent holds about 138.13% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Federated Mutual Fund
Federated Prudent financial ratios help investors to determine whether Federated Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Federated with respect to the benefits of owning Federated Prudent security.
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