Benefit Systems (Poland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2,658
| BFT Stock | 2,830 20.00 0.70% |
Benefit |
Benefit Systems Target Price Odds to finish below 2,658
The tendency of Benefit Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 2,830 | 90 days | 2,830 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Benefit Systems to move below current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Benefit Systems SA probability density function shows the probability of Benefit Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Benefit Systems SA has a beta of -0.12 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Benefit Systems are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Benefit Systems SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Benefit Systems SA has an alpha of 0.2214, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Benefit Systems Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Benefit Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Benefit Systems SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Benefit Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Benefit Systems Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Benefit Systems is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Benefit Systems' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Benefit Systems SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Benefit Systems within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 114.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Benefit Systems Technical Analysis
Benefit Systems' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Benefit Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Benefit Systems SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Benefit Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Benefit Systems Predictive Forecast Models
Benefit Systems' time-series forecasting models is one of many Benefit Systems' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Benefit Systems' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Benefit Systems in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Benefit Systems' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Benefit Systems options trading.
Additional Tools for Benefit Stock Analysis
When running Benefit Systems' price analysis, check to measure Benefit Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Benefit Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Benefit Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Benefit Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Benefit Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Benefit Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.