Banco Mercantil (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 31.29
| BMEB3 Stock | BRL 37.00 1.00 2.78% |
Banco |
Banco Mercantil Target Price Odds to finish below 31.29
The tendency of Banco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 31.29 or more in 90 days |
| 37.00 | 90 days | 31.29 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Banco Mercantil to drop to R$ 31.29 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Banco Mercantil do probability density function shows the probability of Banco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Banco Mercantil do price to stay between R$ 31.29 and its current price of R$37.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.33 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Banco Mercantil do has a beta of -0.59 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Banco Mercantil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Banco Mercantil do is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Banco Mercantil do has an alpha of 0.1629, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Banco Mercantil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Banco Mercantil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Banco Mercantil do. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Banco Mercantil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Banco Mercantil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Banco Mercantil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Banco Mercantil do, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Banco Mercantil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Banco Mercantil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Banco Mercantil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Banco Mercantil do can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Banco Mercantil do has accumulated about 987.48 M in cash with (744.32 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 18.84. | |
| Roughly 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Banco Mercantil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Banco Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Banco Mercantil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Banco Mercantil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 104.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Banco Mercantil Technical Analysis
Banco Mercantil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Banco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Banco Mercantil do. In general, you should focus on analyzing Banco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Banco Mercantil Predictive Forecast Models
Banco Mercantil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Banco Mercantil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Banco Mercantil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Banco Mercantil do
Checking the ongoing alerts about Banco Mercantil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Banco Mercantil do help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Banco Mercantil do has accumulated about 987.48 M in cash with (744.32 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 18.84. | |
| Roughly 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Banco Stock Analysis
When running Banco Mercantil's price analysis, check to measure Banco Mercantil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Banco Mercantil is operating at the current time. Most of Banco Mercantil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Banco Mercantil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Banco Mercantil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Banco Mercantil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.