Bayerische Motoren (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 72.42
| BMW3 Stock | 73.55 1.30 1.74% |
Bayerische |
Bayerische Motoren Target Price Odds to finish below 72.42
The tendency of Bayerische Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 72.42 or more in 90 days |
| 73.55 | 90 days | 72.42 | about 76.11 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bayerische Motoren to drop to 72.42 or more in 90 days from now is about 76.11 (This Bayerische Motoren Werke probability density function shows the probability of Bayerische Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bayerische Motoren Werke price to stay between 72.42 and its current price of 73.55 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.5 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Bayerische Motoren has a beta of 0.0162 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bayerische Motoren average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bayerische Motoren Werke will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Bayerische Motoren Werke has an alpha of 0.0438, implying that it can generate a 0.0438 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Bayerische Motoren Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Bayerische Motoren
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bayerische Motoren Werke. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bayerische Motoren Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bayerische Motoren is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bayerische Motoren's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bayerische Motoren Werke, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bayerische Motoren within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Bayerische Motoren Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bayerische Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bayerische Motoren's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bayerische Motoren's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 659.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 21.8 B |
Bayerische Motoren Technical Analysis
Bayerische Motoren's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bayerische Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bayerische Motoren Werke. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bayerische Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bayerische Motoren Predictive Forecast Models
Bayerische Motoren's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bayerische Motoren's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bayerische Motoren's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bayerische Motoren in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bayerische Motoren's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bayerische Motoren options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Bayerische Stock
Bayerische Motoren financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bayerische Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bayerische with respect to the benefits of owning Bayerische Motoren security.