Bakrie Brothers (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.85
| BNBR Stock | IDR 47.00 1.00 2.08% |
Bakrie |
Bakrie Brothers Target Price Odds to finish below 38.85
The tendency of Bakrie Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 38.85 or more in 90 days |
| 47.00 | 90 days | 38.85 | about 31.2 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bakrie Brothers to drop to 38.85 or more in 90 days from now is about 31.2 (This Bakrie Brothers Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Bakrie Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bakrie Brothers Tbk price to stay between 38.85 and its current price of 47.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 47.46 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Bakrie Brothers has a beta of 0.65 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bakrie Brothers average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bakrie Brothers Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Bakrie Brothers Tbk has an alpha of 0.8421, implying that it can generate a 0.84 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Bakrie Brothers Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bakrie Brothers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bakrie Brothers Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bakrie Brothers Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bakrie Brothers is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bakrie Brothers' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bakrie Brothers Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bakrie Brothers within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.84 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
Bakrie Brothers Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bakrie Brothers for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bakrie Brothers Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bakrie Brothers Tbk is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Bakrie Brothers Tbk appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Bakrie Brothers Tbk has accumulated 154.72 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.69, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Bakrie Brothers Tbk has a current ratio of 0.87, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Bakrie Brothers until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Bakrie Brothers' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Bakrie Brothers Tbk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Bakrie to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Bakrie Brothers' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 52.0% of Bakrie Brothers shares are held by company insiders |
Bakrie Brothers Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bakrie Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bakrie Brothers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bakrie Brothers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.6 T |
Bakrie Brothers Technical Analysis
Bakrie Brothers' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bakrie Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bakrie Brothers Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bakrie Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bakrie Brothers Predictive Forecast Models
Bakrie Brothers' time-series forecasting models is one of many Bakrie Brothers' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bakrie Brothers' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bakrie Brothers Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bakrie Brothers for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bakrie Brothers Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bakrie Brothers Tbk is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Bakrie Brothers Tbk appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Bakrie Brothers Tbk has accumulated 154.72 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.69, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Bakrie Brothers Tbk has a current ratio of 0.87, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Bakrie Brothers until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Bakrie Brothers' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Bakrie Brothers Tbk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Bakrie to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Bakrie Brothers' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 52.0% of Bakrie Brothers shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Bakrie Stock
Bakrie Brothers financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bakrie Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bakrie with respect to the benefits of owning Bakrie Brothers security.