Garuda Metalindo (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1124.39
| BOLT Stock | IDR 1,200 85.00 7.62% |
Garuda |
Garuda Metalindo Target Price Odds to finish below 1124.39
The tendency of Garuda Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 1,124 or more in 90 days |
| 1,200 | 90 days | 1,124 | about 70.91 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Garuda Metalindo to drop to 1,124 or more in 90 days from now is about 70.91 (This Garuda Metalindo Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Garuda Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Garuda Metalindo Tbk price to stay between 1,124 and its current price of 1200.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.55 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Garuda Metalindo Tbk has a beta of -0.0166 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Garuda Metalindo are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Garuda Metalindo Tbk is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Garuda Metalindo Tbk has an alpha of 0.3385, implying that it can generate a 0.34 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Garuda Metalindo Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Garuda Metalindo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Garuda Metalindo Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Garuda Metalindo Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Garuda Metalindo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Garuda Metalindo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Garuda Metalindo Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Garuda Metalindo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 59.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Garuda Metalindo Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Garuda Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Garuda Metalindo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Garuda Metalindo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.9 B |
Garuda Metalindo Technical Analysis
Garuda Metalindo's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Garuda Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Garuda Metalindo Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Garuda Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Garuda Metalindo Predictive Forecast Models
Garuda Metalindo's time-series forecasting models is one of many Garuda Metalindo's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Garuda Metalindo's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Garuda Metalindo in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Garuda Metalindo's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Garuda Metalindo options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Garuda Stock
Garuda Metalindo financial ratios help investors to determine whether Garuda Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Garuda with respect to the benefits of owning Garuda Metalindo security.