Borlease Otomotiv (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 50.46
| BORLS Stock | 50.20 0.10 0.20% |
Borlease |
Borlease Otomotiv Target Price Odds to finish below 50.46
The tendency of Borlease Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 50.46 after 90 days |
| 50.20 | 90 days | 50.46 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Borlease Otomotiv to stay under 50.46 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Borlease Otomotiv AS probability density function shows the probability of Borlease Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Borlease Otomotiv price to stay between its current price of 50.20 and 50.46 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Borlease Otomotiv has a beta of 0.16 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Borlease Otomotiv average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Borlease Otomotiv AS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Borlease Otomotiv AS has an alpha of 0.3603, implying that it can generate a 0.36 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Borlease Otomotiv Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Borlease Otomotiv
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Borlease Otomotiv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Borlease Otomotiv's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Borlease Otomotiv Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Borlease Otomotiv is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Borlease Otomotiv's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Borlease Otomotiv AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Borlease Otomotiv within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Borlease Otomotiv Technical Analysis
Borlease Otomotiv's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Borlease Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Borlease Otomotiv AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Borlease Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Borlease Otomotiv Predictive Forecast Models
Borlease Otomotiv's time-series forecasting models is one of many Borlease Otomotiv's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Borlease Otomotiv's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Borlease Otomotiv in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Borlease Otomotiv's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Borlease Otomotiv options trading.