Bradespar (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 17.11
| BRAP3 Stock | BRL 16.58 0.09 0.54% |
Bradespar |
Bradespar Target Price Odds to finish over 17.11
The tendency of Bradespar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 17.11 or more in 90 days |
| 16.58 | 90 days | 17.11 | about 50.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bradespar to move over R$ 17.11 or more in 90 days from now is about 50.0 (This Bradespar SA probability density function shows the probability of Bradespar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bradespar SA price to stay between its current price of R$ 16.58 and R$ 17.11 at the end of the 90-day period is about 42.39 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Bradespar has a beta of 0.32 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bradespar average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bradespar SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Bradespar SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Bradespar Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bradespar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bradespar SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bradespar Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bradespar is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bradespar's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bradespar SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bradespar within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Bradespar Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bradespar for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bradespar SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bradespar SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bradespar SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 78.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Bradespar Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bradespar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bradespar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bradespar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 418.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 294.7 M |
Bradespar Technical Analysis
Bradespar's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bradespar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bradespar SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bradespar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bradespar Predictive Forecast Models
Bradespar's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bradespar's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bradespar's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bradespar SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bradespar for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bradespar SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bradespar SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bradespar SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 78.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Bradespar Stock Analysis
When running Bradespar's price analysis, check to measure Bradespar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bradespar is operating at the current time. Most of Bradespar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bradespar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bradespar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bradespar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.