Basilea Pharmaceutica (Switzerland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 39.5
| BSLN Stock | CHF 41.30 0.75 1.85% |
Basilea |
Basilea Pharmaceutica Target Price Odds to finish below 39.5
The tendency of Basilea Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to ₣ 39.50 or more in 90 days |
| 41.30 | 90 days | 39.50 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Basilea Pharmaceutica to drop to ₣ 39.50 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Basilea Pharmaceutica AG probability density function shows the probability of Basilea Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Basilea Pharmaceutica price to stay between ₣ 39.50 and its current price of ₣41.3 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.96 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Basilea Pharmaceutica has a beta of 0.0783 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Basilea Pharmaceutica average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Basilea Pharmaceutica AG will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Basilea Pharmaceutica AG has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Basilea Pharmaceutica Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Basilea Pharmaceutica
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Basilea Pharmaceutica. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Basilea Pharmaceutica Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Basilea Pharmaceutica is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Basilea Pharmaceutica's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Basilea Pharmaceutica AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Basilea Pharmaceutica within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
Basilea Pharmaceutica Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Basilea Pharmaceutica for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Basilea Pharmaceutica can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Basilea Pharmaceutica generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 148.12 M. Net Loss for the year was (6.83 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 30.89 M. | |
| Basilea Pharmaceutica AG has accumulated about 0 in cash with (32.02 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 13.81. |
Basilea Pharmaceutica Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Basilea Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Basilea Pharmaceutica's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Basilea Pharmaceutica's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 148.7 M |
Basilea Pharmaceutica Technical Analysis
Basilea Pharmaceutica's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Basilea Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Basilea Pharmaceutica AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing Basilea Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Basilea Pharmaceutica Predictive Forecast Models
Basilea Pharmaceutica's time-series forecasting models is one of many Basilea Pharmaceutica's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Basilea Pharmaceutica's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Basilea Pharmaceutica
Checking the ongoing alerts about Basilea Pharmaceutica for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Basilea Pharmaceutica help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Basilea Pharmaceutica generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 148.12 M. Net Loss for the year was (6.83 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 30.89 M. | |
| Basilea Pharmaceutica AG has accumulated about 0 in cash with (32.02 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 13.81. |
Additional Tools for Basilea Stock Analysis
When running Basilea Pharmaceutica's price analysis, check to measure Basilea Pharmaceutica's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Basilea Pharmaceutica is operating at the current time. Most of Basilea Pharmaceutica's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Basilea Pharmaceutica's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Basilea Pharmaceutica's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Basilea Pharmaceutica to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.