Peabody Energy Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.53
| BTU Stock | USD 23.85 0.40 1.65% |
Peabody |
Peabody Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 16.53
The tendency of Peabody Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 16.53 or more in 90 days |
| 23.85 | 90 days | 16.53 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Peabody Energy to drop to $ 16.53 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Peabody Energy Corp probability density function shows the probability of Peabody Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Peabody Energy Corp price to stay between $ 16.53 and its current price of $23.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.62 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.6 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Peabody Energy will likely underperform. Additionally Peabody Energy Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Peabody Energy Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Peabody Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Peabody Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Peabody Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Peabody Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Peabody Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Peabody Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Peabody Energy Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Peabody Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.60 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Peabody Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Peabody Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Peabody Energy Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Peabody Energy Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Peabody Energy Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Oversold Coal Mining Stock Due For a Rebound |
Peabody Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Peabody Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Peabody Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Peabody Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 154.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 969.3 M |
Peabody Energy Technical Analysis
Peabody Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Peabody Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Peabody Energy Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Peabody Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Peabody Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Peabody Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Peabody Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Peabody Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Peabody Energy Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Peabody Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Peabody Energy Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Peabody Energy Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Peabody Energy Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Oversold Coal Mining Stock Due For a Rebound |
Additional Tools for Peabody Stock Analysis
When running Peabody Energy's price analysis, check to measure Peabody Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Peabody Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Peabody Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Peabody Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Peabody Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Peabody Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.