Cadogan Petroleum (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.31
| CAD Stock | 2.40 0.00 0.00% |
Cadogan |
Cadogan Petroleum Target Price Odds to finish over 2.31
The tendency of Cadogan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 2.31 in 90 days |
| 2.40 | 90 days | 2.31 | about 56.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cadogan Petroleum to stay above 2.31 in 90 days from now is about 56.62 (This Cadogan Petroleum plc probability density function shows the probability of Cadogan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cadogan Petroleum plc price to stay between 2.31 and its current price of 2.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.63 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cadogan Petroleum has a beta of 0.64 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cadogan Petroleum average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cadogan Petroleum plc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cadogan Petroleum plc has an alpha of 0.1938, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cadogan Petroleum Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Cadogan Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cadogan Petroleum plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cadogan Petroleum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cadogan Petroleum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cadogan Petroleum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cadogan Petroleum plc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cadogan Petroleum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.12 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Cadogan Petroleum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cadogan Petroleum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cadogan Petroleum plc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cadogan Petroleum had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Cadogan Petroleum generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Cadogan Petroleum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cadogan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cadogan Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cadogan Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 244.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.2 M |
Cadogan Petroleum Technical Analysis
Cadogan Petroleum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cadogan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cadogan Petroleum plc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cadogan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cadogan Petroleum Predictive Forecast Models
Cadogan Petroleum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cadogan Petroleum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cadogan Petroleum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cadogan Petroleum plc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cadogan Petroleum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cadogan Petroleum plc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cadogan Petroleum had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Cadogan Petroleum generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Cadogan Stock
Cadogan Petroleum financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cadogan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cadogan with respect to the benefits of owning Cadogan Petroleum security.