CONAGRA FOODS (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 21.97
| CAO Stock | EUR 25.98 0.19 0.73% |
CONAGRA |
CONAGRA FOODS Target Price Odds to finish below 21.97
The tendency of CONAGRA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 21.97 or more in 90 days |
| 25.98 | 90 days | 21.97 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CONAGRA FOODS to drop to € 21.97 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This CONAGRA FOODS probability density function shows the probability of CONAGRA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CONAGRA FOODS price to stay between € 21.97 and its current price of €25.98 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.57 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CONAGRA FOODS has a beta of 0.3 suggesting as returns on the market go up, CONAGRA FOODS average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CONAGRA FOODS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CONAGRA FOODS has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. CONAGRA FOODS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CONAGRA FOODS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CONAGRA FOODS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CONAGRA FOODS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CONAGRA FOODS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CONAGRA FOODS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CONAGRA FOODS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CONAGRA FOODS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
CONAGRA FOODS Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CONAGRA FOODS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CONAGRA FOODS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CONAGRA FOODS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
CONAGRA FOODS Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CONAGRA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CONAGRA FOODS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CONAGRA FOODS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 480.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 581.8 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 891.6 M |
CONAGRA FOODS Technical Analysis
CONAGRA FOODS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CONAGRA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CONAGRA FOODS. In general, you should focus on analyzing CONAGRA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CONAGRA FOODS Predictive Forecast Models
CONAGRA FOODS's time-series forecasting models is one of many CONAGRA FOODS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CONAGRA FOODS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CONAGRA FOODS
Checking the ongoing alerts about CONAGRA FOODS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CONAGRA FOODS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CONAGRA FOODS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in CONAGRA Stock
When determining whether CONAGRA FOODS is a strong investment it is important to analyze CONAGRA FOODS's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact CONAGRA FOODS's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding CONAGRA Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out CONAGRA FOODS Backtesting, CONAGRA FOODS Valuation, CONAGRA FOODS Correlation, CONAGRA FOODS Hype Analysis, CONAGRA FOODS Volatility, CONAGRA FOODS History as well as CONAGRA FOODS Performance. For information on how to trade CONAGRA Stock refer to our How to Trade CONAGRA Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.