CAP PLC (Nigeria) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 38.83
| CAP Stock | 37.50 0.00 0.00% |
CAP |
CAP PLC Target Price Odds to finish over 38.83
The tendency of CAP Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 38.83 or more in 90 days |
| 37.50 | 90 days | 38.83 | about 1.66 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CAP PLC to move over 38.83 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.66 (This CAP PLC probability density function shows the probability of CAP Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CAP PLC price to stay between its current price of 37.50 and 38.83 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.48 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CAP PLC has a beta of -0.32 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding CAP PLC are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, CAP PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally CAP PLC has an alpha of 0.1965, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). CAP PLC Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for CAP PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CAP PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CAP PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CAP PLC Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CAP PLC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CAP PLC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CAP PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CAP PLC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
CAP PLC Technical Analysis
CAP PLC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CAP Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CAP PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing CAP Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CAP PLC Predictive Forecast Models
CAP PLC's time-series forecasting models is one of many CAP PLC's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CAP PLC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CAP PLC in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CAP PLC's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CAP PLC options trading.
Additional Tools for CAP Stock Analysis
When running CAP PLC's price analysis, check to measure CAP PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CAP PLC is operating at the current time. Most of CAP PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CAP PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CAP PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CAP PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.