Cargurus Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.69
| CARG Stock | USD 37.76 0.29 0.76% |
CarGurus |
CarGurus Target Price Odds to finish below 23.69
The tendency of CarGurus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 23.69 or more in 90 days |
| 37.76 | 90 days | 23.69 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CarGurus to drop to $ 23.69 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This CarGurus probability density function shows the probability of CarGurus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CarGurus price to stay between $ 23.69 and its current price of $37.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.84 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.03 suggesting CarGurus market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, CarGurus is expected to follow. Additionally CarGurus has an alpha of 0.3883, implying that it can generate a 0.39 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). CarGurus Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CarGurus
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CarGurus. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CarGurus Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CarGurus is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CarGurus' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CarGurus, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CarGurus within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.24 |
CarGurus Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CarGurus for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CarGurus can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: CarGurus Inc Releases 2024 Recap 2025 Outlook Key Market Trends and Predictions |
CarGurus Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CarGurus Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CarGurus' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CarGurus' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 312.1 M |
CarGurus Technical Analysis
CarGurus' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CarGurus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CarGurus. In general, you should focus on analyzing CarGurus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CarGurus Predictive Forecast Models
CarGurus' time-series forecasting models is one of many CarGurus' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CarGurus' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CarGurus
Checking the ongoing alerts about CarGurus for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CarGurus help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: CarGurus Inc Releases 2024 Recap 2025 Outlook Key Market Trends and Predictions |
Check out CarGurus Backtesting, CarGurus Valuation, CarGurus Correlation, CarGurus Hype Analysis, CarGurus Volatility, CarGurus History as well as CarGurus Performance. For more detail on how to invest in CarGurus Stock please use our How to Invest in CarGurus guide.You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Interactive Media & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CarGurus. If investors know CarGurus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CarGurus listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.265 | Earnings Share (0.45) | Revenue Per Share 8.361 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.054 | Return On Assets 0.0563 |
The market value of CarGurus is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CarGurus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CarGurus' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CarGurus' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CarGurus' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CarGurus' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CarGurus' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CarGurus is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CarGurus' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.