Carver Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.54
| CARV Stock | USD 1.84 0.01 0.55% |
Carver |
Carver Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 1.54
The tendency of Carver Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.54 or more in 90 days |
| 1.84 | 90 days | 1.54 | roughly 2.7 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carver Bancorp to drop to $ 1.54 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.7 (This Carver Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Carver Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Carver Bancorp price to stay between $ 1.54 and its current price of $1.84 at the end of the 90-day period is about 62.24 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Carver Bancorp has a beta of -0.66 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Carver Bancorp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Carver Bancorp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Carver Bancorp has an alpha of 0.0735, implying that it can generate a 0.0735 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Carver Bancorp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Carver Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carver Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Carver Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carver Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carver Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carver Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carver Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.66 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Carver Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carver Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carver Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Carver Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Carver Bancorp may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Carver Bancorp has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Carver Bancorp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 29.2 M. Net Loss for the year was (2.98 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 27.22 M. | |
| Carver Bancorp currently holds about 43.38 M in cash with (6.57 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.27, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Carver Bancorp has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Leading Independent Proxy Advisory Firm ISS Recommends Carver Bancorp, Inc. Stockholders Vote FOR the Companys Highly Qualified Director Nominees |
Carver Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carver Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carver Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carver Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59 M |
Carver Bancorp Technical Analysis
Carver Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Carver Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carver Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Carver Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Carver Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
Carver Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Carver Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Carver Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Carver Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Carver Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Carver Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Carver Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Carver Bancorp may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Carver Bancorp has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Carver Bancorp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 29.2 M. Net Loss for the year was (2.98 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 27.22 M. | |
| Carver Bancorp currently holds about 43.38 M in cash with (6.57 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.27, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Carver Bancorp has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Leading Independent Proxy Advisory Firm ISS Recommends Carver Bancorp, Inc. Stockholders Vote FOR the Companys Highly Qualified Director Nominees |
Additional Tools for Carver Stock Analysis
When running Carver Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure Carver Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carver Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Carver Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carver Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carver Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carver Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.