Caterpillar (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 375.30
| CAT1 Stock | 387.50 0.50 0.13% |
Caterpillar |
Caterpillar Target Price Odds to finish below 375.30
The tendency of Caterpillar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 375.30 or more in 90 days |
| 387.50 | 90 days | 375.30 | about 85.45 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Caterpillar to drop to 375.30 or more in 90 days from now is about 85.45 (This Caterpillar probability density function shows the probability of Caterpillar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Caterpillar price to stay between 375.30 and its current price of 387.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.3 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Caterpillar has a beta of 0.19 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Caterpillar average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Caterpillar will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Caterpillar has an alpha of 0.2917, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Caterpillar Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Caterpillar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caterpillar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Caterpillar Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Caterpillar is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Caterpillar's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Caterpillar, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Caterpillar within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 25.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.10 |
Caterpillar Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Caterpillar for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Caterpillar can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Caterpillar Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Caterpillar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Caterpillar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caterpillar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 561.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7 B |
Caterpillar Technical Analysis
Caterpillar's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Caterpillar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Caterpillar. In general, you should focus on analyzing Caterpillar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Caterpillar Predictive Forecast Models
Caterpillar's time-series forecasting models is one of many Caterpillar's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Caterpillar's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Caterpillar
Checking the ongoing alerts about Caterpillar for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Caterpillar help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Caterpillar Stock
When determining whether Caterpillar is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Caterpillar Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Caterpillar Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Caterpillar Stock:Check out Caterpillar Backtesting, Caterpillar Valuation, Caterpillar Correlation, Caterpillar Hype Analysis, Caterpillar Volatility, Caterpillar History as well as Caterpillar Performance. For information on how to trade Caterpillar Stock refer to our How to Trade Caterpillar Stock guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.