Commerce Bancshares Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 69.98
| CBSH Stock | USD 73.70 1.89 2.63% |
Commerce |
Commerce Bancshares Target Price Odds to finish below 69.98
The tendency of Commerce Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 69.98 or more in 90 days |
| 73.70 | 90 days | 69.98 | over 95.04 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Commerce Bancshares to drop to $ 69.98 or more in 90 days from now is over 95.04 (This Commerce Bancshares probability density function shows the probability of Commerce Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Commerce Bancshares price to stay between $ 69.98 and its current price of $73.7 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.36 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.65 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Commerce Bancshares will likely underperform. Additionally Commerce Bancshares has an alpha of 0.0688, implying that it can generate a 0.0688 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Commerce Bancshares Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Commerce Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commerce Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commerce Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Commerce Bancshares Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Commerce Bancshares is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Commerce Bancshares' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Commerce Bancshares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Commerce Bancshares within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Commerce Bancshares Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Commerce Bancshares for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Commerce Bancshares can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Meeder Asset Management Inc. Trims Stock Holdings in Commerce Bancshares, Inc. |
Commerce Bancshares Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Commerce Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Commerce Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commerce Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 130.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.4 B |
Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis
Commerce Bancshares' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Commerce Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Commerce Bancshares. In general, you should focus on analyzing Commerce Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Commerce Bancshares Predictive Forecast Models
Commerce Bancshares' time-series forecasting models is one of many Commerce Bancshares' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Commerce Bancshares' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Commerce Bancshares
Checking the ongoing alerts about Commerce Bancshares for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Commerce Bancshares help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Meeder Asset Management Inc. Trims Stock Holdings in Commerce Bancshares, Inc. |
Check out Commerce Bancshares Backtesting, Commerce Bancshares Valuation, Commerce Bancshares Correlation, Commerce Bancshares Hype Analysis, Commerce Bancshares Volatility, Commerce Bancshares History as well as Commerce Bancshares Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Commerce Stock please use our How to Invest in Commerce Bancshares guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commerce Bancshares. If investors know Commerce will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commerce Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.162 | Dividend Share 1.067 | Earnings Share 3.84 | Revenue Per Share 12.557 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.083 |
The market value of Commerce Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commerce that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commerce Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commerce Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commerce Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commerce Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commerce Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commerce Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commerce Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.