Cincinnati Financial (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 109.45

CCJ Stock  EUR 144.90  2.60  1.76%   
Cincinnati Financial's future price is the expected price of Cincinnati Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Cincinnati Financial performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Cincinnati Financial Backtesting, Cincinnati Financial Valuation, Cincinnati Financial Correlation, Cincinnati Financial Hype Analysis, Cincinnati Financial Volatility, Cincinnati Financial History as well as Cincinnati Financial Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Cincinnati Stock please use our How to Invest in Cincinnati Financial guide.
  
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Cincinnati Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 109.45

The tendency of Cincinnati Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above € 109.45  in 90 days
 144.90 90 days 109.45 
about 98.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cincinnati Financial to stay above € 109.45  in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Cincinnati Financial probability density function shows the probability of Cincinnati Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cincinnati Financial price to stay between € 109.45  and its current price of €144.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.12 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.31 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Cincinnati Financial will likely underperform. Additionally Cincinnati Financial has an alpha of 0.0766, implying that it can generate a 0.0766 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Cincinnati Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Cincinnati Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cincinnati Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
143.33144.90146.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
130.41150.40151.97
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
137.90139.48141.05
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
143.98146.92149.85
Details

Cincinnati Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cincinnati Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cincinnati Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cincinnati Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cincinnati Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.08
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.31
σ
Overall volatility
10.93
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Cincinnati Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cincinnati Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cincinnati Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company reported the revenue of 6.56 B. Net Loss for the year was (486 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (533 M).
About 69.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

Cincinnati Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cincinnati Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cincinnati Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cincinnati Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding157.1 M

Cincinnati Financial Technical Analysis

Cincinnati Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cincinnati Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cincinnati Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cincinnati Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Cincinnati Financial Predictive Forecast Models

Cincinnati Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cincinnati Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cincinnati Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Cincinnati Financial

Checking the ongoing alerts about Cincinnati Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cincinnati Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company reported the revenue of 6.56 B. Net Loss for the year was (486 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (533 M).
About 69.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Cincinnati Stock

When determining whether Cincinnati Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze Cincinnati Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Cincinnati Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Cincinnati Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Cincinnati Financial Backtesting, Cincinnati Financial Valuation, Cincinnati Financial Correlation, Cincinnati Financial Hype Analysis, Cincinnati Financial Volatility, Cincinnati Financial History as well as Cincinnati Financial Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Cincinnati Stock please use our How to Invest in Cincinnati Financial guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cincinnati Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cincinnati Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cincinnati Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.