Cardlytics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.78
| CDLX Stock | USD 3.97 0.03 0.76% |
Cardlytics |
Cardlytics Target Price Odds to finish below 3.78
The tendency of Cardlytics Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 3.78 or more in 90 days |
| 3.97 | 90 days | 3.78 | about 54.6 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cardlytics to drop to $ 3.78 or more in 90 days from now is about 54.6 (This Cardlytics probability density function shows the probability of Cardlytics Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cardlytics price to stay between $ 3.78 and its current price of $3.97 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.87 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Cardlytics has a beta of -1.86 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Cardlytics are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Cardlytics is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Cardlytics has an alpha of 0.371, implying that it can generate a 0.37 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cardlytics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cardlytics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cardlytics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cardlytics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cardlytics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cardlytics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cardlytics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cardlytics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.86 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Cardlytics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cardlytics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cardlytics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cardlytics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Cardlytics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Cardlytics currently holds 266.11 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.42, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Cardlytics has a current ratio of 0.88, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Cardlytics' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 309.2 M. Net Loss for the year was (134.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 115.42 M. | |
| Cardlytics currently holds about 157.04 M in cash with (185 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.77, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 62.0% of Cardlytics shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Cardlytics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cardlytics Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cardlytics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cardlytics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 91.8 M |
Cardlytics Technical Analysis
Cardlytics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cardlytics Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cardlytics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cardlytics Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cardlytics Predictive Forecast Models
Cardlytics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Cardlytics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cardlytics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cardlytics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cardlytics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cardlytics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cardlytics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Cardlytics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Cardlytics currently holds 266.11 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.42, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Cardlytics has a current ratio of 0.88, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Cardlytics' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 309.2 M. Net Loss for the year was (134.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 115.42 M. | |
| Cardlytics currently holds about 157.04 M in cash with (185 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.77, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 62.0% of Cardlytics shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Tools for Cardlytics Stock Analysis
When running Cardlytics' price analysis, check to measure Cardlytics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cardlytics is operating at the current time. Most of Cardlytics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cardlytics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cardlytics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cardlytics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.