Avid Bioservices Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8.74
| CDMO Stock | USD 12.28 0.07 0.57% |
Closest to current price Avid long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
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Avid Bioservices Target Price Odds to finish below 8.74
The tendency of Avid Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 8.74 or more in 90 days |
| 12.28 | 90 days | 8.74 | about 1.22 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Avid Bioservices to drop to $ 8.74 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.22 (This Avid Bioservices probability density function shows the probability of Avid Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Avid Bioservices price to stay between $ 8.74 and its current price of $12.28 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.72 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.61 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Avid Bioservices will likely underperform. Additionally Avid Bioservices has an alpha of 0.1292, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Avid Bioservices Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Avid Bioservices
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avid Bioservices. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Avid Bioservices Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Avid Bioservices is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Avid Bioservices' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Avid Bioservices, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Avid Bioservices within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.97 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Avid Bioservices Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Avid Bioservices for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Avid Bioservices can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Avid Bioservices had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 139.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (140.75 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 31.48 M. | |
| Avid Bioservices has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: U.S. Small Molecule Innovator API CDMO Market Research 2024-2030 Outsourcing Gains Traction as Risk-Averse Strategy for Early-Stage Drug Developments - ResearchAndMarkets.com |
Avid Bioservices Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Avid Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Avid Bioservices' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avid Bioservices' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 63.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.1 M |
Avid Bioservices Technical Analysis
Avid Bioservices' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Avid Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Avid Bioservices. In general, you should focus on analyzing Avid Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Avid Bioservices Predictive Forecast Models
Avid Bioservices' time-series forecasting models is one of many Avid Bioservices' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Avid Bioservices' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Avid Bioservices
Checking the ongoing alerts about Avid Bioservices for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Avid Bioservices help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Avid Bioservices had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 139.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (140.75 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 31.48 M. | |
| Avid Bioservices has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: U.S. Small Molecule Innovator API CDMO Market Research 2024-2030 Outsourcing Gains Traction as Risk-Averse Strategy for Early-Stage Drug Developments - ResearchAndMarkets.com |
Check out Avid Bioservices Backtesting, Avid Bioservices Valuation, Avid Bioservices Correlation, Avid Bioservices Hype Analysis, Avid Bioservices Volatility, Avid Bioservices History as well as Avid Bioservices Performance. To learn how to invest in Avid Stock, please use our How to Invest in Avid Bioservices guide.You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Avid Bioservices. If investors know Avid will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Avid Bioservices listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | Earnings Share (2.29) | Revenue Per Share 2.245 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.065 | Return On Assets (0.03) |
The market value of Avid Bioservices is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avid that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avid Bioservices' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avid Bioservices' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avid Bioservices' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avid Bioservices' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avid Bioservices' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Avid Bioservices is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avid Bioservices' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.