Ceco Environmental Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 27.2
| CECO Stock | USD 31.36 1.16 3.84% |
CECO |
CECO Environmental Target Price Odds to finish below 27.2
The tendency of CECO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 27.20 or more in 90 days |
| 31.36 | 90 days | 27.20 | about 54.53 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CECO Environmental to drop to $ 27.20 or more in 90 days from now is about 54.53 (This CECO Environmental Corp probability density function shows the probability of CECO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CECO Environmental Corp price to stay between $ 27.20 and its current price of $31.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 44.6 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.24 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, CECO Environmental will likely underperform. Additionally CECO Environmental Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. CECO Environmental Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for CECO Environmental
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CECO Environmental Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CECO Environmental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CECO Environmental Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CECO Environmental is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CECO Environmental's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CECO Environmental Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CECO Environmental within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
CECO Environmental Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CECO Environmental for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CECO Environmental Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CECO Environmental had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| CECO Environmental has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Foundry Partners LLC Trims Stake in CECO Environmental Corp. |
CECO Environmental Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CECO Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CECO Environmental's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CECO Environmental's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 55.4 M |
CECO Environmental Technical Analysis
CECO Environmental's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CECO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CECO Environmental Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing CECO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CECO Environmental Predictive Forecast Models
CECO Environmental's time-series forecasting models is one of many CECO Environmental's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CECO Environmental's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CECO Environmental Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about CECO Environmental for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CECO Environmental Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CECO Environmental had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| CECO Environmental has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Foundry Partners LLC Trims Stake in CECO Environmental Corp. |
Check out CECO Environmental Backtesting, CECO Environmental Valuation, CECO Environmental Correlation, CECO Environmental Hype Analysis, CECO Environmental Volatility, CECO Environmental History as well as CECO Environmental Performance. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CECO Environmental. If investors know CECO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CECO Environmental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | Earnings Share 0.33 | Revenue Per Share 15.853 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) | Return On Assets 0.0424 |
The market value of CECO Environmental Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CECO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CECO Environmental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CECO Environmental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CECO Environmental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CECO Environmental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CECO Environmental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CECO Environmental is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CECO Environmental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.