BTG Pactual (Chile) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 11,183
| CFIBTGFGIA | CLP 11,200 0.00 0.00% |
BTG |
BTG Pactual Target Price Odds to finish over 11,183
The tendency of BTG Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 11,200 | 90 days | 11,200 | about 1.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BTG Pactual to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 1.62 (This BTG Pactual Chile probability density function shows the probability of BTG Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon BTG Pactual Chile has a beta of -0.0931 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding BTG Pactual are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, BTG Pactual Chile is likely to outperform the market. Additionally BTG Pactual Chile has an alpha of 0.119, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). BTG Pactual Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BTG Pactual
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BTG Pactual Chile. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BTG Pactual's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BTG Pactual Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BTG Pactual is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BTG Pactual's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BTG Pactual Chile, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BTG Pactual within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 273.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
BTG Pactual Technical Analysis
BTG Pactual's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BTG Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BTG Pactual Chile. In general, you should focus on analyzing BTG Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BTG Pactual Predictive Forecast Models
BTG Pactual's time-series forecasting models is one of many BTG Pactual's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BTG Pactual's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BTG Pactual in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BTG Pactual's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BTG Pactual options trading.
Other Information on Investing in BTG Fund
BTG Pactual financial ratios help investors to determine whether BTG Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in BTG with respect to the benefits of owning BTG Pactual security.
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