Commerce Midcap Value Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 27.16
| CFMVX Fund | 26.91 0.02 0.07% |
Commerce |
Commerce Midcap Target Price Odds to finish below 27.16
The tendency of Commerce Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 27.16 after 90 days |
| 26.91 | 90 days | 27.16 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Commerce Midcap to stay under 27.16 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Commerce Midcap Value probability density function shows the probability of Commerce Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Commerce Midcap Value price to stay between its current price of 26.91 and 27.16 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Commerce Midcap has a beta of 0.0181 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Commerce Midcap average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Commerce Midcap Value will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Commerce Midcap Value has an alpha of 0.1092, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Commerce Midcap Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Commerce Midcap
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commerce Midcap Value. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commerce Midcap's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Commerce Midcap Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Commerce Midcap is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Commerce Midcap's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Commerce Midcap Value, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Commerce Midcap within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Commerce Midcap Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Commerce Midcap for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Commerce Midcap Value can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund holds all of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments |
Commerce Midcap Technical Analysis
Commerce Midcap's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Commerce Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Commerce Midcap Value. In general, you should focus on analyzing Commerce Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Commerce Midcap Predictive Forecast Models
Commerce Midcap's time-series forecasting models is one of many Commerce Midcap's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Commerce Midcap's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Commerce Midcap Value
Checking the ongoing alerts about Commerce Midcap for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Commerce Midcap Value help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund holds all of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments |
Other Information on Investing in Commerce Mutual Fund
Commerce Midcap financial ratios help investors to determine whether Commerce Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Commerce with respect to the benefits of owning Commerce Midcap security.
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