Cegedim SA (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.22
| CGM Stock | EUR 11.65 0.05 0.43% |
Cegedim |
Cegedim SA Target Price Odds to finish below 5.22
The tendency of Cegedim Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 5.22 or more in 90 days |
| 11.65 | 90 days | 5.22 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cegedim SA to drop to € 5.22 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Cegedim SA probability density function shows the probability of Cegedim Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cegedim SA price to stay between € 5.22 and its current price of €11.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.87 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cegedim SA has a beta of 0.066 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cegedim SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cegedim SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cegedim SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Cegedim SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cegedim SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cegedim SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cegedim SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cegedim SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cegedim SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cegedim SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cegedim SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Cegedim SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cegedim SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cegedim SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cegedim SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cegedim SA has accumulated 186.57 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.28, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Cegedim SA has a current ratio of 0.9, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Cegedim SA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Cegedim SA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Cegedim SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Cegedim to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Cegedim SA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 54.0% of Cegedim SA shares are held by company insiders |
Cegedim SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cegedim Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cegedim SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cegedim SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 24.2 M |
Cegedim SA Technical Analysis
Cegedim SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cegedim Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cegedim SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cegedim Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cegedim SA Predictive Forecast Models
Cegedim SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cegedim SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cegedim SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cegedim SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cegedim SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cegedim SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cegedim SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cegedim SA has accumulated 186.57 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.28, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Cegedim SA has a current ratio of 0.9, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Cegedim SA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Cegedim SA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Cegedim SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Cegedim to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Cegedim SA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 54.0% of Cegedim SA shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Cegedim Stock
Cegedim SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cegedim Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cegedim with respect to the benefits of owning Cegedim SA security.