Central Industries (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 111.72
| CINDN0000 | LKR 128.75 2.50 1.98% |
Central |
Central Industries Target Price Odds to finish below 111.72
The tendency of Central Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 111.72 or more in 90 days |
| 128.75 | 90 days | 111.72 | about 46.5 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Central Industries to drop to 111.72 or more in 90 days from now is about 46.5 (This Central Industries PLC probability density function shows the probability of Central Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Central Industries PLC price to stay between 111.72 and its current price of 128.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.06 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Central Industries PLC has a beta of -0.68 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Central Industries are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Central Industries PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Central Industries PLC has an alpha of 0.5486, implying that it can generate a 0.55 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Central Industries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Central Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Central Industries PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Central Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Central Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Central Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Central Industries PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Central Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.55 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Central Industries Technical Analysis
Central Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Central Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Central Industries PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Central Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Central Industries Predictive Forecast Models
Central Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many Central Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Central Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Central Industries in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Central Industries' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Central Industries options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Central Stock
Central Industries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Central Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Central with respect to the benefits of owning Central Industries security.