Vaneck Cmci Commodity Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 18.69
| CMCI Etf | USD 25.75 0.17 0.66% |
VanEck |
VanEck CMCI Target Price Odds to finish below 18.69
The tendency of VanEck Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 18.69 or more in 90 days |
| 25.75 | 90 days | 18.69 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of VanEck CMCI to drop to $ 18.69 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This VanEck CMCI Commodity probability density function shows the probability of VanEck Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of VanEck CMCI Commodity price to stay between $ 18.69 and its current price of $25.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.36 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days VanEck CMCI Commodity has a beta of -0.28 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding VanEck CMCI are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, VanEck CMCI Commodity is likely to outperform the market. Additionally VanEck CMCI Commodity has an alpha of 0.1448, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). VanEck CMCI Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for VanEck CMCI
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck CMCI Commodity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VanEck CMCI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
VanEck CMCI Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. VanEck CMCI is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the VanEck CMCI's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VanEck CMCI Commodity, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of VanEck CMCI within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0024 |
VanEck CMCI Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of VanEck CMCI for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for VanEck CMCI Commodity can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| VanEck CMCI generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: VanEck CMCI Commodity Strategy ETF Stock Price Down 1.3 percent Time to Sell | |
| The fund holds all of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments |
VanEck CMCI Technical Analysis
VanEck CMCI's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. VanEck Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VanEck CMCI Commodity. In general, you should focus on analyzing VanEck Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
VanEck CMCI Predictive Forecast Models
VanEck CMCI's time-series forecasting models is one of many VanEck CMCI's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary VanEck CMCI's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about VanEck CMCI Commodity
Checking the ongoing alerts about VanEck CMCI for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for VanEck CMCI Commodity help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| VanEck CMCI generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: VanEck CMCI Commodity Strategy ETF Stock Price Down 1.3 percent Time to Sell | |
| The fund holds all of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments |
Check out VanEck CMCI Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, VanEck CMCI Correlation, VanEck CMCI Hype Analysis, VanEck CMCI Volatility, VanEck CMCI History as well as VanEck CMCI Performance. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
The market value of VanEck CMCI Commodity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VanEck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VanEck CMCI's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VanEck CMCI's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VanEck CMCI's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VanEck CMCI's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VanEck CMCI's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VanEck CMCI is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VanEck CMCI's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.