Caledonia Mining (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1213.73
| CMCL Stock | 850.00 10.00 1.19% |
Caledonia |
Caledonia Mining Target Price Odds to finish below 1213.73
The tendency of Caledonia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 1,214 after 90 days |
| 850.00 | 90 days | 1,214 | about 92.52 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Caledonia Mining to stay under 1,214 after 90 days from now is about 92.52 (This Caledonia Mining probability density function shows the probability of Caledonia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Caledonia Mining price to stay between its current price of 850.00 and 1,214 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.01 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Caledonia Mining has a beta of -0.0435 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Caledonia Mining are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Caledonia Mining is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Caledonia Mining has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Caledonia Mining Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Caledonia Mining
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caledonia Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Caledonia Mining Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Caledonia Mining is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Caledonia Mining's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Caledonia Mining, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Caledonia Mining within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 119.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Caledonia Mining Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Caledonia Mining for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Caledonia Mining can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Caledonia Mining generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Caledonia Mining is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Caledonia Mining Stock Passes Below Two Hundred Day Moving Average - Whats Next - MarketBeat |
Caledonia Mining Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Caledonia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Caledonia Mining's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caledonia Mining's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.3 M |
Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis
Caledonia Mining's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Caledonia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Caledonia Mining. In general, you should focus on analyzing Caledonia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Caledonia Mining Predictive Forecast Models
Caledonia Mining's time-series forecasting models is one of many Caledonia Mining's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Caledonia Mining's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Caledonia Mining
Checking the ongoing alerts about Caledonia Mining for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Caledonia Mining help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Caledonia Mining generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Caledonia Mining is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Caledonia Mining Stock Passes Below Two Hundred Day Moving Average - Whats Next - MarketBeat |
Additional Tools for Caledonia Stock Analysis
When running Caledonia Mining's price analysis, check to measure Caledonia Mining's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caledonia Mining is operating at the current time. Most of Caledonia Mining's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caledonia Mining's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caledonia Mining's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caledonia Mining to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.