Citra Marga (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1429.5
| CMNP Stock | IDR 1,420 5.00 0.35% |
Citra |
Citra Marga Target Price Odds to finish below 1429.5
The tendency of Citra Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 1,430 after 90 days |
| 1,420 | 90 days | 1,430 | about 10.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Citra Marga to stay under 1,430 after 90 days from now is about 10.84 (This Citra Marga Nusaphala probability density function shows the probability of Citra Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Citra Marga Nusaphala price to stay between its current price of 1,420 and 1,430 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.44 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Citra Marga Nusaphala has a beta of -0.16 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Citra Marga are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Citra Marga Nusaphala is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Citra Marga Nusaphala has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Citra Marga Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Citra Marga
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citra Marga Nusaphala. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Citra Marga Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Citra Marga is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Citra Marga's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Citra Marga Nusaphala, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Citra Marga within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 33.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Citra Marga Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Citra Marga for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Citra Marga Nusaphala can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Citra Marga generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Citra Marga has accumulated 1.07 Trillion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| About 73.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Citra Marga Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Citra Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Citra Marga's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Citra Marga's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 T |
Citra Marga Technical Analysis
Citra Marga's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Citra Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Citra Marga Nusaphala. In general, you should focus on analyzing Citra Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Citra Marga Predictive Forecast Models
Citra Marga's time-series forecasting models is one of many Citra Marga's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Citra Marga's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Citra Marga Nusaphala
Checking the ongoing alerts about Citra Marga for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Citra Marga Nusaphala help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Citra Marga generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Citra Marga has accumulated 1.07 Trillion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| About 73.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Citra Stock
Citra Marga financial ratios help investors to determine whether Citra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Citra with respect to the benefits of owning Citra Marga security.