Conifer Holding Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.3
| CNFR Stock | USD 1.10 0.05 4.35% |
Conifer |
Conifer Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 1.3
The tendency of Conifer Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 1.30 after 90 days |
| 1.10 | 90 days | 1.30 | about 84.06 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Conifer Holding to stay under $ 1.30 after 90 days from now is about 84.06 (This Conifer Holding probability density function shows the probability of Conifer Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Conifer Holding price to stay between its current price of $ 1.10 and $ 1.30 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.13 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Conifer Holding has a beta of -4.19 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Conifer Holding are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Conifer Holding is expected to outperform its benchmark. Moreover Conifer Holding has an alpha of 1.7688, implying that it can generate a 1.77 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Conifer Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Conifer Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Conifer Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Conifer Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Conifer Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Conifer Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Conifer Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Conifer Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.77 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -4.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.10 |
Conifer Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Conifer Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Conifer Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Conifer Holding had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Conifer Holding may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Conifer Holding has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Conifer Holding currently holds 25.06 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.99, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Conifer Holding has a current ratio of 0.56, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Conifer Holding's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 98.76 M. Net Loss for the year was (25.9 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.27 M. | |
| Conifer Holding currently holds about 41.15 M in cash with (13.39 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.37, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Conifer Holding has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 45.0% of Conifer Holding shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of tradable shares by Smith James Grant of Conifer Holding subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Conifer Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Conifer Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Conifer Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Conifer Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32 M |
Conifer Holding Technical Analysis
Conifer Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Conifer Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Conifer Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Conifer Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Conifer Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Conifer Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Conifer Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Conifer Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Conifer Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Conifer Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Conifer Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Conifer Holding had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Conifer Holding may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Conifer Holding has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Conifer Holding currently holds 25.06 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.99, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Conifer Holding has a current ratio of 0.56, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Conifer Holding's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 98.76 M. Net Loss for the year was (25.9 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.27 M. | |
| Conifer Holding currently holds about 41.15 M in cash with (13.39 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.37, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Conifer Holding has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 45.0% of Conifer Holding shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of tradable shares by Smith James Grant of Conifer Holding subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Additional Tools for Conifer Stock Analysis
When running Conifer Holding's price analysis, check to measure Conifer Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Conifer Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Conifer Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Conifer Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Conifer Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Conifer Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.