Connectone Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.04
| CNOB Stock | USD 24.86 0.02 0.08% |
Closest to current price ConnectOne long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration
ConnectOne |
ConnectOne Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 19.04
The tendency of ConnectOne Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 19.04 or more in 90 days |
| 24.86 | 90 days | 19.04 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ConnectOne Bancorp to drop to $ 19.04 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This ConnectOne Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of ConnectOne Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ConnectOne Bancorp price to stay between $ 19.04 and its current price of $24.86 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.64 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days ConnectOne Bancorp has a beta of -0.33 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ConnectOne Bancorp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ConnectOne Bancorp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ConnectOne Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ConnectOne Bancorp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ConnectOne Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ConnectOne Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ConnectOne Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ConnectOne Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ConnectOne Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ConnectOne Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ConnectOne Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
ConnectOne Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ConnectOne Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ConnectOne Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ConnectOne Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ConnectOne Bancorp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Shareholders of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. and The First of Long Island Corporation Approve ... |
ConnectOne Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ConnectOne Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ConnectOne Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ConnectOne Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 670.7 M |
ConnectOne Bancorp Technical Analysis
ConnectOne Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ConnectOne Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ConnectOne Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing ConnectOne Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ConnectOne Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
ConnectOne Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many ConnectOne Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ConnectOne Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ConnectOne Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about ConnectOne Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ConnectOne Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ConnectOne Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ConnectOne Bancorp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Shareholders of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. and The First of Long Island Corporation Approve ... |
Check out ConnectOne Bancorp Backtesting, ConnectOne Bancorp Valuation, ConnectOne Bancorp Correlation, ConnectOne Bancorp Hype Analysis, ConnectOne Bancorp Volatility, ConnectOne Bancorp History as well as ConnectOne Bancorp Performance. For information on how to trade ConnectOne Stock refer to our How to Trade ConnectOne Stock guide.You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ConnectOne Bancorp. If investors know ConnectOne will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ConnectOne Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.066 | Dividend Share 0.72 | Earnings Share 1.76 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.026 |
The market value of ConnectOne Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ConnectOne that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ConnectOne Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ConnectOne Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ConnectOne Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ConnectOne Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ConnectOne Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ConnectOne Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ConnectOne Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.