Canadian Natural Resources Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 48.8
| CNQ Stock | CAD 48.71 0.41 0.85% |
Canadian |
Canadian Natural Target Price Odds to finish over 48.8
The tendency of Canadian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over C$ 48.80 or more in 90 days |
| 48.71 | 90 days | 48.80 | about 21.77 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Canadian Natural to move over C$ 48.80 or more in 90 days from now is about 21.77 (This Canadian Natural Resources probability density function shows the probability of Canadian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Canadian Natural Res price to stay between its current price of C$ 48.71 and C$ 48.80 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.35 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Canadian Natural has a beta of 0.46 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Canadian Natural average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Canadian Natural Resources will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Canadian Natural Resources has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Canadian Natural Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Canadian Natural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Canadian Natural Res. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Canadian Natural Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Canadian Natural is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Canadian Natural's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Canadian Natural Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Canadian Natural within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Canadian Natural Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Canadian Natural for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Canadian Natural Res can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Canadian Natural Res generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Canadian Natural Resources has accumulated 12.35 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.76, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Canadian Natural Res has a current ratio of 0.81, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Canadian Natural until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Canadian Natural's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Canadian Natural Res sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Canadian to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Canadian Natural's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 76.0% of Canadian Natural shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Canadian Natural Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Canadian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Canadian Natural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canadian Natural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
Canadian Natural Technical Analysis
Canadian Natural's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Canadian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Canadian Natural Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Canadian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Canadian Natural Predictive Forecast Models
Canadian Natural's time-series forecasting models is one of many Canadian Natural's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Canadian Natural's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Canadian Natural Res
Checking the ongoing alerts about Canadian Natural for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Canadian Natural Res help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Canadian Natural Res generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Canadian Natural Resources has accumulated 12.35 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.76, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Canadian Natural Res has a current ratio of 0.81, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Canadian Natural until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Canadian Natural's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Canadian Natural Res sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Canadian to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Canadian Natural's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 76.0% of Canadian Natural shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
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